Failing upwards: how to be successfully incompetent

Let's all channel the bravado of a consequence-free life.

Imagine you tank the UK economy, deny you did so (even though EVERYONE WAS THERE) and are allowed to just pretend it never happened. Imagine you incite a riot to overthrow US democracy and people still want you as president. Imagine you buy one of the most effective and influential social-media platforms in the world and turn it into a racist, misogynistic, homophobic and violent dumpster-fire that has real-world consequences for democracy – and yet people still treat you as a genius.  

We are neck-deep in the era of failing upwards, surrounded by grifters who somehow keep landing on their feet despite cock-ups that would get most of us slow-clapped off the face of the planet, let alone fired. 

Con artists are as old as time – as long as there has been money or power to hanker for, there have been people skilled at suckering others out of it. What makes the time we’re living in so extraordinary is the sheer number of grifters who have clawed their grubby way to the top of global systems and, in having done so, are putting them at risk. 

As Ligaya Mishan says in this New York Times Style Magazine essay: “...in its highest form [grift] goes beyond mere fraud to question and undermine the institutions that control us, the systems that keep us from getting ahead — and the world as we know it.”

A consequence-free life. Imagine

Matt Hancock proving shame is an optional emotion

Here are a few top-line theories on how certain people keep failing up, whether they’ve exhibited incompetence, dabbled in actual criminality, or are just a bit mediocre:

A scarcity of talent

Certain industries are more susceptible to giving mediocre or downright criminal applicants more chances: politics, Hollywood, sports and high-stakes businesses. This is due to a “perceived scarcity of talent”. Because there are only a few elite-level jobs in these areas, it’s underestimated how many talented people there are to fill them. There’s also the fact these roles are often in the public eye, so the risk-factor is higher in getting it wrong. Firms therefore tend to fish in the same small pool of ‘tried and tested’ people (even if they’re terrible) rather than take a public and expensive punt on new talent. Hirers can trick themselves into believing they’re branching out by indulging in rampant nepotism, but it’s the same story: sure, new faces – but new faces with the same old names.

This explains how David Cameron is back from the political wilderness via a lordship despite being the architect of austerity and Brexit, as well as allegedly (hi, lawyers!) having dubious connections to Chinese businesses that alone makes him entirely unfit for his new Foreign Secretary job. It’s also why Jorge Vilda, the fired Spanish women’s football team coach, immediately secured a cushty new job as head of the Moroccan team. 

Social conditioning

We are socially conditioned to believe that people have reached positions of power on the basis of merit. Accepting the alternative – that they’re fraudsters or that the systems they game are inherently corrupt and so plebs like us have little chance of success – is too grim, depressing and downright frightening to swallow. Therefore many normal folk want – no, need – these chancers to succeed. 

Elon Musk’s destruction of Twitter has been so dramatic, public and absolute, and yet he is still so powerful (mainly via his SpaceX program), that it is truly terrifying to contemplate how he might just be a plonker who’s way out of his depth. People legitimise and rationalise his terrible decisions and behaviour as a form of denial. His success becomes in some way their success: a validation of their belief systems and reassurance that things work as they should.  

Rishi barely unable to contain his excitement at meeting Musk

Decision-makers love overconfidence 

Research has consistently shown that decision-makers are easily seduced by “characteristics incompatible with good leadership, such as overconfidence”. This ties into my previous piece on shame, “What Trump’s lack of shame means for all of us”, in which I questioned how we’re meant to hold people to account who ignore the societal constructs that keep most of us in check. This kind of overconfidence includes taking no personal accountability for anything – or simply not caring when you’re caught out.

This article in the Harvard Business Review delves into why overconfidence can seem attractive: “According to one hypothesis (the presumption of calibration hypothesis), we generally assume others have the self-knowledge to know how confident they should be, and we also assume they will truthfully communicate this confidence to us (the so-called truth bias), unless extenuating circumstances suggest otherwise. So whenever we encounter confidence, we tend to find it compelling, and we expect it to be justified.”

My absolute favourite recent example of this is US congressman George Santos, who I am obsessed with. Despite facing a 23-count federal indictment of conspiracy, wire fraud, falsification and identity theft – as well a House Ethics Committee report that says he “sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit” – he resolutely refuses to resign and, at the time of writing, still has his job!

George Santos: so outrageous I almost love him. JOKING. Kind of.

They are self-branding experts

Slick personal branding and zeroing in on one particular topic can trick people into seeing someone as hyper-focused and so an ‘expert’. It’s why so many social-media influencers have eventually been outed as scammers, or still continue to enjoy massive success despite having zero qualifications. 

“We started focusing so much on style, extraversion, assertiveness, lean in, be confident, brand yourself, make eye contact, body language, that we forgot to focus on substance,” says Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, a business psychology professor at Columbia University, New York.  

Scandal-magnet YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul

Why this matters

This matters because it holds more talented people down, propagates extreme views, moves the goalposts for civility, achievement and expertise, normalises and legitimises outrageous behaviour from some people, and weakens the systems that define how we live. The UK and US are both being held to ransom by a pandemic of mediocrity right now with political and cultural systems beset by individualism and a distinct lack of new faces making positive waves. 

Yes, everyone should be allowed to make mistakes – it is integral to personal and professional growth – but the problems arise when only certain types of people are given that space. (There are deep-dives to be taken into race, sexuality and gender here that are properly fascinating if you have the time.)

Just One More Thing

Seeing through the bluster and insisting on holding people to account (via voting, protesting, signing petitions, or leaving your terrible boss a flaming turd on their doorstep), are some ways we can try to remain sane during these times. Remind yourself that sometimes worthy people do get chances and sometimes awful folk do get their comeuppance – and you’re not a bad person for hoping for the latter. Karma is, after all, a badass bitch. 

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